IMF paper identifies new approach to forecasting recessions


An International Monetary Fund (IMF) paper published on Thursday highlights the advantages of selecting specific indicators to forecast recessions.

Chikako Baba and Turgut Kışınbay, the paper's authors, propose a new approach to identifying recessions by introducing leading indicators and forecast combinations in a subset of data. By applying the forecast-encompassing principle to forecasts based on individual indicators, the authors select variables that can be considered leading indicators of

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