Oil price surge driven by speculation: St Louis Fed paper

federal reserve

The increase in oil prices in the last decade was mainly driven by an increase in global demand, but financial speculation did play a significant role in the recent oil price volatility, according to a St Louis Federal Reserve paper, published on Tuesday.

Luciana Juvenal and Ivan Petrella, the paper's authors, use a factor-augmented autoregressive model to examine whether the rise in flow of investment to commodity markets and speculation in oil markets played a key role in the run-up of oil

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