Oil-price volatility driven by speculation: ECB paper

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A European Central Bank paper, published on Monday, says oil prices have been driven predominantly by speculation rather than economic fundamentals since 2004.

Isabel Vansteenkiste, the paper's author, estimates a Markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities to analyse the relative importance of fundamental and speculative demand on oil futures price levels and volatility. Vansteenkiste distinguishes between commercial traders who are physically involved with oil and non

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