Crisis raises risk of creditless recovery: ECB paper

Short-term economic outlook remains 'confusing'

A European Central Bank paper published on Wednesday says the probability of a creditless recovery doubles after a banking or currency crisis.

Martin Bijsterbosch and Tatjana Dahlhaus, the paper's authors, use panel probit models to predict the probability of creditless recoveries in central and eastern European Union member states in coming years. The aim is to shed light on the characteristics, and particularly the determinants, of creditless recoveries.

The results show that creditless

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