Early warning models doomed to fail
Model-based early warning systems are unlikely to predict future crises accurately, new research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve reveals.
The analysis looks at changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate during 2008 and explores the linkages between these manifestations of the crisis and a number of its possible causes from 2006 and earlier.
The analysis looks at over sixty potential causes of the crisis, such as:
· financial-system policies
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