The three epochs of oil

Research by two prominent economists using the longest oil-price series available has uncovered significant trends in the price of crude.

The paper, written by Eyal Dvir and Ken Rogoff, examines changes in price behaviour with a crude oil price series covering the period from 1861 until 2008.

The authors found strong evidence for changes in both persistence and volatility of price across three well-defined periods and argue that the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and

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