Reserve Bank of New Zealand discussion papers

RESEARCH - Monetary policy and inflation forecasting with and without the output gap by Weshah Razzak, March 2002.

Monetary policy and inflation forecasting with and without the output gap

Some observers have worried that under or over-estimating the output gap may unnecessarily induce tightening or loosening of monetary conditions, causing real fluctuations. To investigate the relationship between the output gap and inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap

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