US imbalances: the role of technology and policy

This ECB Working Paper published Thursday 25 January investigates the role of three likely factors in driving the steady deterioration of the US external balance: US technology developments, changes in the US government fiscal position and the Fed's monetary policy.

Estimating several Vector Autoregressions on US data over the period 1982:2 to 2005:4 the authors identify five structural shocks: a multi-factor productivity shock; an investment-specific technology shock; a monetary policy shock

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