Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis research

RESEARCH - Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation? By Andrew Atkeson and Lee E. Ohanian both professors of economics at the University of California, Los Angeles.

ABSTRACT

This study evaluates the conventional wisdom that modern Phillips curve-based models are useful tools for forecasting inflation. These models are based on the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU). The study compares the accuracy, over the last 15 years, of three sets of inflation forecasts

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