SF Fed economist cautions on early warning systems

Early warning systems to detect future crises may fail because of the difficulties in determining what causes crises, research by two prominent economists suggests.

Mark Spiegel, the vice president for research and data at the San Francisco Federal Reserve, and Andrew Rose, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley, tested more than 60 factors mooted as possible causes of the crisis, but found that few emerged as robust predictors of crisis severity.

The economists said in an artic

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