Has a Recession Already Started? - FRBSF

US - In this latest Economic Letter, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Senior Research Advisor Glenn Rudebusch examines the definition and dating of recessions.

He argues that, even in light of recent data and events, a recession

may not be a certainty because of the lack of synchronization in the declines of various sectors of the economy; however if a recession does occur, its start could well be dated to last spring.

Many people associate a recession with bad times - high unemployment, low p