Central banks forecast GDP less accurately than inflation

Over half of central banks reviewed models in a bid to project more accurately

Economic growth and headline inflation are the top forecast indicators for most central banks, but the variable most prone to error is growth, the Economics Benchmarks 2022 show.

With responses from 20 institutions, the average error of forecasts for GDP growth in the past 12 months was two percentage points, compared with the 1pp average forecast error for inflation over the same period. Twenty-two respondents provided data on inflation forecast errors.

Respondents were asked to provide the

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Central Banking? View our subscription options

If you already have an account, please sign in here.

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account