Central banks forecast GDP less accurately than inflation

Over half of central banks reviewed models in a bid to project more accurately

Economic growth and headline inflation are the top forecast indicators for most central banks, but the variable most prone to error is growth, the Economics Benchmarks 2022 show.

With responses from 20 institutions, the average error of forecasts for GDP growth in the past 12 months was two percentage points, compared with the 1pp average forecast error for inflation over the same period. Twenty-two respondents provided data on inflation forecast errors.

Respondents were asked to provide the

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