Articles by Daniel Hinge
BoE leads foray into non-bank stress simulations
Paper sets out agent-based approach to modelling feedback loop that could create sharp price moves, even where funds and dealers are individually safe
CCP network study uncovers highly concentrated core of firms
First data-collection exercise of its kind reveals a concentrated core and more dispersed periphery, with the possibility of shocks spreading outward
House prices could outstrip income for decades – David Miles
Former Bank of England policymaker says under “plausible” assumptions, real house prices can rise without limit, implying high prices are not necessarily a sign of bubbles
BoE ups capital buffers as consumer credit outstrips income
“Pockets of risk” including effects of Brexit negotiations and car finance warrant attention, BoE says, though it stresses overall stability threats are at “normal” levels
BIS urges policymakers to exploit ‘window of opportunity’
Financial cycles are getting close to turning in many economies and central banks and governments must make sure they are prepared, the BIS warns in its 2017 annual report
Book notes: Can We Avoid Another Financial Crisis?, by Steve Keen
Steve Keen challenges “mainstream” economic thinking in this concise book, hoping to shift the political debate on debt
Greek bailout funds approved but debt relief still contentious
IMF agrees “in principle” to new support for Greece, unlocking European funds, but parties still fail to reach accord on debt relief
Central banks build expertise in move to riskier reserve tranches
Growing popularity of reserves tranching is stretching central banks’ capabilities, a new report finds, but they are turning to asset managers and other central banks for help
Bank of England threatened with strike action over pay
Union members to be balloted on strike after being awarded a “derisory” 1% pay rise; UK inflation currently running at 2.7% and forecast to rise further
IMF’s Werner: Latin America must keep debt under control
Western hemisphere chief says there are some concerning signs on debt, although the risk of a systemic crisis is low; region well placed to weather Fed shock
BIS’s Coen warns of danger in delays as output floors remain stuck
Long phase-in periods increase risk of “dilution or backtracking”, says BCBS secretary-general; remains vague on timetable for Basel III completion
Central banks stress commitment as FX Global Code launches
Central banks worldwide are quick to state they will comply with the new global forex code and expect their counterparties to do the same
Long-standing Uzbek central bank chairman dies
Fayzulla Mullazhanov led the central bank since its formation following the collapse of the Soviet Union
US household debt surpasses pre-crisis peak
Household debt exceeds 2008 level for first time, driven in part by auto loans and student debt
Let the market regulate banks – FDIC’s Hoenig
Vice-chairman offers proposal that would take an axe to risk-based capital, stress testing and parts of the Volcker rule
IMF’s Werner: central banks need better understanding of interventions
Central banks in Latin America have employed a host of unconventional market interventions, but figuring out what works and what does not is proving tricky
RBNZ’s Krippner: term structure models can make for better policy
Central bank economist talks about his work on modelling monetary policy at the zero lower bound, and what comes next
Influential UK committee chair Andrew Tyrie to step down
MP says he will not seek re-election, ending a 20-year career in parliament, during which he oversaw major changes to UK financial regulation
Rajan and Weber: central banks may fail next crisis test
Heavyweight economists say central banks may well find themselves intervening at the next major liquidity crisis, despite ostensible progress on resolution
Riksbank cautious on plans for new macro-prudential tools
Central bank broadly welcomes government proposals but takes issue with elements it sees as limiting flexibility
Bank of Canada’s Vardy and Harrison on the move to ‘peacetime’ communications
Central bank has reshaped its communications approach post-crisis, embedding it into the policy process and encouraging markets to think for themselves
Swift rolls out new cyber defences for central banks
System uses machine learning to spot patterns and anomalies, so central banks and other institutions can act early on suspicious transactions
Central banks eye gold amid global uncertainty
Rising inflation and the unclear impact of Trump administration policies may lead reserve managers to view gold – and inflation-linked bonds – more favourably
BIS report: build liquidity co‑operation early to prepare for crisis
CGFS report urges central banks to build networks domestically and across borders to have liquidity ready for the next crisis