Rethinking capital-flow resilience in an age of recurring shocks
Amro’s Yasuto Watanabe and Takuya Yoshioka argue that policy-makers need a range of credible monitoring and policy tools to address the next major shocks
Policy-makers waiting for global financial conditions to normalise may be waiting for the wrong event. The experience of 2026 suggests that shocks can overlap, creating new pressures before earlier ones have subsided.
An energy shock, renewed inflation pressures, shifting monetary-policy expectations, trade uncertainty and an artificial intelligence investment boom have moved currencies, bond yields and capital across borders. Yet economies have weathered these shocks differently.
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