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US inflation regime persistently above target now – Fed economist

Price rises are broad-based and have significantly impacted expectations says researcher

Inflation target

The US is likely to have entered an inflation regime in which price rises are persistently above target, according to an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.

In a blog post published on October 17, Fernando Martin, a senior economic policy adviser at the St Louis Fed, says inflation on an annualised basis has exceeded the 2% target level since March 2021. He adds that the latest available data, from August 2025, shows inflation remains significantly above target, at 2.7%.

Martin says

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