Phil Fed's Santomero on the recent business cycle

"The bottom line is that oil prices persistently in the $50-per-barrel-plus range could slow the pace of domestic demand growth this year, though they should not jeopardize the expansion itself," Santomero said in the speech at the University of Delaware.

"Similarly, rising energy costs could curtail businesses' capacity to increase their investment spending," he said.

In his speech, Santomero, a voting member of the Fed's policy board this year, said that if the economy evolved as he suggested -- with solid growth and relatively stable prices -- the Fed would "continue on our present course of moving the federal funds rate toward neutrality."

But "if signs of heightened price pressure emerge on a consistent basis, we will need to consider quickening the pace at which we move toward policy neutrality," he said.

To read past central bank speeches use our Speech Finder. Click the link on the right.

Speech by Anthony M. Santomero, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, University of Delaware: Hutchinson Lecture, 12 April 2005.

Click here to read the speech "A policymaker's reflections on the recent business cycle" on the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's website