IMF Paper on forecasting ECB monetary policy

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. This IMF Working Paper published February 2006 asks how this heterogeneity affects the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank?

Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that

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