Machine learning model flags importance of yield curve for crisis prediction


Credit growth and the slope of the yield curve are the leading predictors of financial crisis, according to a new paper published by the Bank of England.

“A flat or inverted yield curve is of most concern when nominal interest rates are low and credit growth is high,” say authors from the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the University of Bath.

They use a machine learning (ML) model to examine early warning signs, which the authors claim “generally outperforms” a baseline logistic

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact [email protected] or view our subscription options here:

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact [email protected] to find out more.

To continue reading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here: