Easing supply chain pressures could bring US inflation below 4%

New York skyscrapers and flag

If global supply chain pressures ease, US inflation could fall as low as 3.8% this year, authors with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York find.

The analysis, published on February 22, also warns a new oil shock could leave US consumer price index (CPI) inflation near 6% at the end of the year.

The economists find that the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) is strongly associated with rises in both consumer and producer prices. The GSCPI has a stronger correlation with

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