Cleveland Fed researchers examine Taylor rules followed by professional forecasters

Study draws on survey data collected by Philadelphia Fed since 1995

cleveland-federal-reserve
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

New research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland examines whether professional forecasters use a Taylor rule when projecting the federal funds rate, finding that while some do, there are "tremendous" differences between them.

The ‘Taylor rule' is a formula devised by Stanford University professor John Taylor that advises central banks how to set their policy rates, given changes in inflation and unemployment.

"While such a rule necessarily abstracts from the many complexities that

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