Cleveland Fed researchers examine Taylor rules followed by professional forecasters

Study draws on survey data collected by Philadelphia Fed since 1995

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

New research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland examines whether professional forecasters use a Taylor rule when projecting the federal funds rate, finding that while some do, there are "tremendous" differences between them.

The ‘Taylor rule' is a formula devised by Stanford University professor John Taylor that advises central banks how to set their policy rates, given changes in inflation and unemployment.

"While such a rule necessarily abstracts from the many complexities that

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