NBG paper develops early warning system for external risks

National Bank of Georgia
The National Bank of Georgia
Photo: NBG

New research published by the National Bank of Georgia details the development of an early warning system designed to signal an early build-up of external vulnerabilities.

In the paper, Valida Pantsulaia, Salome Tvalodze and Zviad Zedginidze note that Georgia experiences persistent current account deficits and high levels of dollarisation, which combine to make it particularly vulnerable to external shocks. They develop an early warning indicator in three stages.

They start with an index of

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