Polish paper extolls benefits of probability forecasts

national-bank-of-poland

A National Bank of Poland (NBP) working paper, published this month, evaluates a macroeconomic survey that looks beyond point forecasts and seeks to determine the probabilities of a wide range of scenarios.

The authors, Halina Kowalczyk, Tomasz Łyziak and Ewa Stanisławska, scrutinise an NBP survey that asks economists to assess the possible range of values for a given variable (growth or inflation, for example) and indicate the probabilities they attribute to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles

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