Measuring output gap in export-oriented economies: IMF paper
An International Monetary Fund paper, published in April, compares methods to estimate the output gap in Mongolia, a country with a large mining industry.
Julia Bersch and Tara Sinclair, the paper's authors, compare estimates of the output gap for Mongolia using univariate statistical filters and a Blanchard and Quah-type model, which includes additional economic information on inflation.
Bersch and Sinclair find that the Blanchard and Quah-type joint model of output and inflation provides a
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