Accurate inflation forecast crucial for exit plan
Accurately predicting inflation will be vital over the next few years, new research from the St Louis Federal Reserve says.
The analysis shows that the New Keynesian model of inflation forecasting, which is utilised by several of the Federal Open Market Committee members, is often subject to considerable measurement errors due to its dependence on the output gap estimation.
The research posits that those who foresee little risk to the near-term inflation outlook because of a large, persistent
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