Predicting euro-area recessions

This ECB working paper looks at the informational content of the slope of the

yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area.

This ECB working paper looks at the informational content of the slope of the

yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area. In particular, the historical predictive power of ten yield spreads, for different segments of the yield curve, is tested. The yield spread between the ten-year government bond rate and the three-month interbank rate

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