Negative oil shocks outweigh positive ones, says Irish paper

Oil and commodities
The type and timing of oil price shocks affect their impact on inflation, argues Evgenidis

Oil price shocks have greater effects on eurozone inflation during periods of uncertainty and when they are negative, an economic letter published by the Central Bank of Ireland argues.

In Do all oil price shocks have the same impact? Evidence from the Euro Area, Anastasios Evgenidis reviews the question using a threshold vector autoregression model. The threshold in the model, he says, "identifies when the economy is in a period of high uncertainty, such as the financial and sovereign debt

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