Inflation and GDP growth forecast errors decrease further
Forecast errors used widely for key model adjustments
Central banks’ forecast errors on headline inflation and GDP growth were slimmer in the past year than in 2023, the Economics Benchmarks 2024 find.
Twenty-seven economic teams reported a median inflation forecast error of 0.4 percentage points. Among 25 institutions that provided data, the median forecast error for GDP growth over the past year was 1pp. Both figures are lower than the values reported in the 2023 benchmark, which may reflect a return to relative normality after the series of
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