Artículos de Daniel Hinge
Teaching machines to do monetary policy
Machine learning may not yet be at the stage where central bankers are being replaced with robots, but the field is bringing powerful tools to bear on big economic questions
Interview: Edward Prescott
The Nobel Prize-winner speaks to Daniel Hinge about time inconsistency and real business cycle theory, and explains why there is no ‘productivity puzzle’
Riksbank’s new stability chief resigns after less than a week
Henrik Braconier says he regrets stepping down from his former role with Finansinspektionen
Central banks should take transparency further, economist argues
Dissenting MPC members can hide behind vagueness and “verbiage”, says Tony Yates
Debelle calls for more thought on financial stability independence
RBA deputy says financial stability needs its own intellectual framework; panellists warn independence likely to face tougher challenges ahead
BIS study flags ‘missing debt’ as exuberance spreads
Strong macroeconomic backdrop is encouraging risks to grow, BIS warns; new and updated datasets launched
Bank of Canada rebuts ‘epic fail’ communication claim
Central bank’s head of comms rejects criticism from Bank of Montreal that policymakers failed to properly signal its recent rate hike
Dispelling the German monetary myth
Economic historian Simon Mee finds the famous German aversion to inflation was the product of political battles in the mid-twentieth century
Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ is not credible – Nobel laureate
Chris Sims says ECB cannot be sure it will be able to stop a run on the euro until it is backed by a central eurozone fiscal authority
Opaque money markets work well, Nobel laureate says
Bengt Holmström says policymakers should not try to make money markets more transparent
New NY Fed dataset shows weakening labour market
New York Fed unveils new, more granular labour market data; results so far indicate wage growth is still elusive
Banks are scrambling to hit IFRS 9 deadline – survey
Many banks appear to have been caught off-guard by the complexity of adapting to IFRS 9; impact assessments still patchy, but some see provisioning needs up by 40% or more
Court dismisses ‘irrational’ Sarb mandate challenge
Judge finds South African public protector’s attempt to change the Sarb’s mandate was illegal, irrational and unfair
UK economy vulnerable to consumption-led recession
Fragile consumer spending could take a toll on growth, former BoE officials warn, leaving the central bank with a tough job ahead
BoE workers walk out over continuing pay dispute
Workers launch first of three days of strike action amid complaint over fairness of pay awards, with possibility of further escalation
Piecing together a financial theory of stagnation
Ideas presented at recent BIS annual meetings reveal an emerging framework that explains how the financial system may be dragging down the real economy; Hélène Rey was the latest to contribute
Bank of Canada severs mechanical link to external ratings
After several years of work, the Bank of Canada is now “well positioned” to end its mechanistic reliance on external credit ratings, and is helping others do the same, says Philippe Muller
Paper proposes method to estimate network of exposures
Researcher draws on aggregate exposures and market data to build a more complete picture of the network of bank exposures
Tensions rise as EU payments deadline nears
Europe’s revised payment services directive is meant to boost innovation, competition and security, but many are concerned it has serious flaws
BoE leads foray into non-bank stress simulations
Paper sets out agent-based approach to modelling feedback loop that could create sharp price moves, even where funds and dealers are individually safe
CCP network study uncovers highly concentrated core of firms
First data-collection exercise of its kind reveals a concentrated core and more dispersed periphery, with the possibility of shocks spreading outward
House prices could outstrip income for decades – David Miles
Former Bank of England policymaker says under “plausible” assumptions, real house prices can rise without limit, implying high prices are not necessarily a sign of bubbles
BoE ups capital buffers as consumer credit outstrips income
“Pockets of risk” including effects of Brexit negotiations and car finance warrant attention, BoE says, though it stresses overall stability threats are at “normal” levels
BIS urges policymakers to exploit ‘window of opportunity’
Financial cycles are getting close to turning in many economies and central banks and governments must make sure they are prepared, the BIS warns in its 2017 annual report