What is the future of cash? The question has many dimensions. One is philosophical: should people always be able to pay using banknotes, or would electronic forms of money suffice? Another is economic: how do changing patterns of payment use affect the economy, and what does that mean for central bank operations? A third is mathematical: what will the shape of cash demand look like in a year’s time? To answer the latter question, forecast models are required. It turns out that the quality of