Economics
UK inflation jump to 1% is just ‘tip of the iceberg’
Latest inflation data shows leap from 0.6% in August to 1% in September; former MPC member Sentance says this is just tip of the iceberg
Rand volatility not driven by South African economic ‘surprises’ – IMF paper
IMF working paper finds that surprises in commodity prices, domestic politics and US economics impact the volatility of the South African rand rather than economic surprises in South Africa or China
Fed might stimulate labour market with ‘high pressure’ economy
Fed president floats idea of dealing with weak labour markets by “high-pressure” economy; Boston Fed’s Rosengren points to key ‘puzzles’ in data on US economy
Bank of Spain paper explores links between fiscal consolidation and private deleveraging
Larger and faster fiscal consolidations have greater impact on output, authors argue
ECB’s Mersch: central banks have failed to correctly assess growth potential
Central banks were “over-reliant on pro-cyclical forecasts” before the financial crisis, ECB board member says; repeats call for fiscal stimulus and structural reform
No ‘insidious’ German plan for EMU competitive advantage, says Issing
Otmar Issing says Germany didn't even have 'the economic intelligence' to design such a plan; country suffered years of high unemployment as others such as Italy failed to capitalise on price stability
Otmar Issing on why the euro ‘house of cards’ is set to collapse
Euro architect tells Chris Jeffery that muddling from one crisis to another cannot go on endlessly. Politicians need to admit “there is no likelihood” of political union to give EMU rules a chance
Belgian paper studies work of pioneer of regional economics
Robert Triffin was the “architect” of the European Payments Union
BoE paper tackles ‘sectoral co-movement puzzle’
Adding labour market frictions and habit formation helps to solve the problem of models implying a monetary contraction produces little response in output
BoE paper tests agent-based model of macro-prudential policy
Researchers use agent-based model to capture diversity of behaviour between different housing market participants, pointing to risks from larger buy-to-let sector
Learning errors slow recovery from financial crises – paper
Researchers examine information rigidity in financial markets and incorporate the learning behaviour of investors into a DSGE model
Paper examines effects of financial crisis on European long-term debt issuance
Bank of Spain paper uses large database on most frequent issuers of long-term debt
Demographics could explain entire drop in real rate – Fed paper
Authors find ageing population can explain most – or even all – of the estimated decline in the long-run real interest rate, implying low rates are here to stay
Danish economist updates DSGE model with financial frictions
Jesper Pedersen adds imperfectly competitive banking system and housing market to improve model’s ability to explain crises
ECB paper aims to improve small-scale models for assessing policy shocks
Paper outlines a structural factor model, which the authors say better accounts for the asset price impact of monetary policy shocks
Maskin: technocrats should set eurozone fiscal policy
Harvard economist argues a technocratic body similar to a central bank could set spending and revenue targets in eurozone before allowing politicians to determine the details
RBI’s Mundra: pinning down credit-GDP link is tricky
Deputy governor says a host of factors combine to make the link between credit and growth unclear, but the link may reinstate itself as the economy stabilises
Rajan and co-authors present paper to ECB research conference
Paper introduces “pledgeability” as analytical tool; concept helps explain prolonged financial downturns, authors say
Big data could cut regulatory costs, say panellists
Big data could lead to a reduction in costly regulatory reporting, but three experts say there is still a long way to go before the figures are up to scratch
BoJ paper harnesses census data to improve industry surveys
Researchers aim to make the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey more accurate from a smaller sample, based on Japan’s economic census
New model shows eurozone output gap remains large, researchers argue
Other models fail to capture interplay of inflation and output, paper says
BoE’s Forbes studies generation of ‘global tsunamis’
External MPC member asks why some global shocks have major consequences and others do not, seeking answers in countries’ financial linkages, common shocks and contagion
Eurozone employment-to-GDP-growth ratio has recovered strongly – ECB
Employment growth concentrated in Spain and Germany; productivity remains “stagnant at pre-crisis levels”
BIS research seeks to forecast global inflation
Economist builds global inflation forecast using country-level survey forecasts, finding it can be used to improve domestic inflation projections in some countries