Economics
ECB paper examines use of eurozone bank lending survey
Changes in credit standards in the ECB’s bank lending survey serve as leading indicators for GDP and bank loan growth, researchers say
Post-crisis banking regulations increase large firms’ funding advantage – paper
Banque de France working paper presents a large-scale DGSE model with large and small firms to analyse the impact of new banking regulations
Norges Bank paper studies forecast asymmetry at lower bound
Effective lower bound need not translate into asymmetries in other forecast variables, authors find; regime-switching DSGE model helps overcome Lucas critique
Riksbank paper offers method for tackling distorted forecast evaluation
Authors adjust for different amounts of information available, allowing them to overcome distortions in forecast evaluation
Richmond Fed tries to bridge gap between rules and discretion
Economist presents research urging Fed to be more explicit about its strategy using “graphical framework”, while Jeffrey Lacker says rules offer valuable guidance to policy-makers
ECB’s QE policies have significant spillovers into CESEE economies, paper argues
Researchers examine effects on investment of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank
Wage Phillips curves in eurozone steepened after 2008 – paper
Germany was the exception among major eurozone economies, Bank of Italy paper argues
Paper presents new model of interbank loan market
“Novel” model should help policy-makers think through real-life scenarios, researchers say
Eurozone exchange rate pass-through has declined over time – researcher
Italian exchange rate pass-through has behaved very differently from other major eurozone economies – particularly Germany’s – paper finds
RBA’s Kent considers life after the mining boom
Australian economy is well into an adjustment, following the country’s mining investment boom; RBA correctly identified the patterns of adjustment, but was surprised by the magnitude
Chinese financial spillovers to Asia-Pacific on the rise – BIS paper
Working paper finds Chinese equity markets now have almost as much of an impact on Asia-Pacific as the US, though the effects differ in stressed and placid times
Book notes: And the weak suffer what they must?, by Yanis Varoufakis
A book that is likely to elicit strong opinions – but Varoufakis writes persuasively, and may well win over many of his readers, says David Mayes
Falling natural rates impacted by common global factors – Fed paper
Research by Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach and John Williams finds no sign of natural rate decline reversing; advanced economies jointly affected by global factors
Bank of Finland looking to streamline and upgrade payments simulator
Economist sheds light on the bank’s plans for adding new features, improving efficiency and integrating agent-based modelling
HKMA researchers dig into persistent covered interest parity deviation
Authors posit forex swap dealers filter out counterparty risk from money market rates when setting swap prices; risk adjustment continues even in non-stressed periods
University of Buckingham to launch first central banking master’s degree
Monetary economics to form core of the year-long course; university hopes programme will enrol around 12-15 students in the first year
Major economies show clear credit price cycles, researchers say
Housing markets are a key influence on credit prices cycles in the US and major European economies, an ECB paper argues
Countries’ capital flows differ substantially since financial crisis – ECB paper
Macro-prudential policies could be a long-term impediment to capital flows, according to the authors of an ECB paper
Jackson Hole: economists flag costs and benefits of bloated balance sheets
Economists including Christopher Sims, Ricardo Reis and Jeremy Stein unpack the economics of central bank balance sheets, identifying both dangers and potential benefits
Book notes: The power of a single number, by Philipp Lepenies
Lepenies offers a brief but very readable treatment of GDP's political history, drawing out some important lessons in the process
Mervyn King on Brexit, crisis supervision, economic rebalancing and reforming the IMF
The former Bank of England governor discusses Brexit, radical regulatory reform, the difficulties rebalancing the European and global economies and an overhaul of the International Monetary Fund
Canadian working paper examines effect of downward nominal wage rigidity on wage growth
Average wage growth higher due to DNWR after recession, authors note; signs of heterogeneity in DNWR effects
Economists add to theory and empirics of economy’s non-linear dynamics
Paper by Bank of England economists finds “strong evidence” of non-linearity in UK data, while Markus Brunnermeier and Yuliy Sannikov expand theory of financial amplification mechanisms
Book notes: The euro and the battle of ideas, by Markus K Brunnermeier, Harold James and Jean-Pierre Landau
The authors have produced a fascinating and informative book that offers suggestions on how differences in beliefs can be overcome