Economics
Researchers explore link between rates and consumption in new model
Working paper published by ECB examines transmission mechanism of monetary policy in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model
Poloz upbeat on US and Canadian productivity prospects
Bank of Canada governor explores evolution of international trade; it may have fallen, but there are still opportunities for productivity growth, Poloz says
Cross-border banking contraction broadens – BIS statistics
Latest cross-border banking statistics show drop in cross-border claims spread in Q4 2015 from emerging markets to broader regions; China sees particularly large drops in lending
Fed liftoff pushed some rates down – Riksbank paper
Researchers find hike in policy rate lowered average interest rates on subprime lending, and narrowed spreads with the less risky section of the market, using novel "scraped" data set
MAS director hails work on natural catastrophe data
Bernard Wee introduces Natural Catastrophe Data Analytics Exchange, aimed at remedying “gappy” expertise in the region
Research digs into disagreement about inflation expectations
Paper published by Reserve Bank of Australia examines how the disagreement within stakeholder groups about inflation expectations has evolved
BoJ survey reveals growing pessimism over economy
Share of respondents who expect conditions to worsen over coming year rises to over one-third, although most believe conditions have stayed the same over the past 12 months, and will do so again
IMF director calls for fiscal expansion in eurozone
Greek attempts to consolidate fiscal position by increasing top tax rates ‘simply not working’, director says
Paper finds Norwegian housing market is ‘micro efficient’
Research published by Norges Bank exploits dataset comprising 472,378 housing transactions; finds little persistence but a lot of reversion in sale prices
Italian deputy governor calls for fiscal expansion in eurozone
Some eurozone countries should follow fiscally expansionary policies, Bank of Italy deputy governor argues; policy so far has been “less expansionary” than other major economies
BoJ paper attempts to ditch Friedman rule with new model
Paper outlines model where mild inflation is welfare-optimising, in contrast to Milton Friedman’s rule implying mild deflation, which underpins many monetary models
Norges Bank deputy pits Keynes against Hayek
Jon Nicolaisen says European countries may have invoked the lessons of Keynes without paying heed to the warnings of Hayek – both views are needed to avoid problems
Competition in treasury auctions reduces bidder surplus, working paper finds
Data from before and after Austria’s entry into the European Union shows increased competition in bond auctions substantially reduces bidder surplus, researchers say
IMF working paper assess fiscal councils
Research considers the efficacy of independent fiscal institutions in “taming the deficit bias” that emerged in the 1970s, as well as assessing their performance more recently
IMF urges action to prevent global economy ‘stalling’ and ease central bank burden
Maurice Obstfeld highlights risk of “widespread secular stagnation” as IMF publishes latest WEO; details fiscal and structural support needed to ease burden on monetary policy
IMF working paper sees regulation as key driver of decline in foreign lending
Research contends regulatory tightening is behind much of the ‘sluggishness’ in international banking since the crisis; exploits survey data compiled in preparation for GFSR
BoE searches for better data on macro-financial links
As part of efforts to crack the UK’s productivity puzzle, the BoE plans improved data-gathering, seeking insight into the impact of capital accumulation and access to finance
Perceived long-term eurozone deflation risk unaffected by oil – paper
Between 2010 and 2012, perceived short-term deflation risk was “significantly” affected by oil prices, while medium-term risk was only affected between 2013 and 2015, research suggests
Lower real interest rates may harm productivity growth, researchers say
Lower real interest rates may reduce productivity growth rates, researchers say; Italy and Spain have suffered low or negative TFP growth during existence of euro
Norges Bank researchers grapple with nonlinear exchange rate pass-through
Exchange rate pass-through in Norway is unusually high, which the authors suggest could be due to the size of recent currency movements – but pinning down the effect empirically proves difficult
Policy-makers could use fraud patterns as economic indicator – paper
Positive relationship exists between bank fraud and the macroeconomy, Chicago Fed risk specialist finds, suggesting fraud could offer an early warning sign of crisis
BoJ’s Funo calls for efforts to revive potential growth
Board member uses first speech to back continued expansionary policy, highlighting steps that could help raise Japan’s potential growth from current depressed levels
Philadelphia Fed president warns of ‘mismatch’ between education and business
Patrick Harker says there is a disparity between the education offered and practical skills needed by businesses in the US, which has likely contributed to slow recovery following crisis
Villeroy de Galhau calls for eurozone finance minister
Banque de France governor calls for single eurozone finance minister to co-ordinate fiscal and structural policy; warns of dangers of “overburdening monetary policy”