Forecasting
Quarterly forecast updates are the norm at central banks
Forecasting tends to be a collaborative exercise between staff and policy-makers
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots
Hungary makes shock 185bp rate increase
Central bank responds to inflation and weak forint with largest increase since 2008
The signal and the noise: cash forecasting in uncertain times
From big data tools to Arima models and structural time series, cash forecasting methods are evolving. The work could prove critical to the future of cash during uncertain times
RBNZ tightening policy ‘by more and sooner’
Central bank orders second 50bp hike, the fifth increase since last October
BoE’s Pill says UK facing strong ‘inflationary momentum’
Latest inflation forecast “does not make for pretty reading”, says chief economist
Small drop in US CPI hints at inflation reprieve
Economists estimate US is past inflation peak, but other G7 nations may still be on the upward leg
Czech board raises rates in split vote
Central bank increases inflation forecast and awaits new governor appointment
Norges Bank bucks global trend with rate hold
Inflation has so far fallen short of the central bank’s projections
Fed’s Evans says current inflation ‘very different’ to past episodes
Inflation is following a “whale curve” and the Fed should target the body, president says
UK inflation climbs to 7%
Rapid rise in fuel prices pushes inflation to new 30-year high
Is a bond market crisis imminent?
Central banks need careful action and a good dose of luck if they are to avoid financial instability
Book notes: Cogs and monsters, by Diane Coyle
Coyle brings much-needed nuance to the debate over the shortcomings of economics
Central Banking Awards 2022: final winners unveiled
Prizes for Central bank of the year, Lifetime achievement, Transparency, Economics and more
Transparency: Czech National Bank
New monetary policy report, and publication of attributed minutes and economic model raise the bar for disclosure
Currency services: De La Rue
Printing doyen expanded capacity, functionality and market share amid corporate turnaround
Bailey seeks to clarify controversial comments on wage restraint
BoE governor says firms need to curb price rises to limit impact on poorest households
Half of fintech benchmarks respondents use AI/ML tools
Richer nations more likely to use artificial intelligence
Turkish central bank holds main rate despite high inflation
Committee says it expects inflation trend to reverse soon, as headline figure nears 50%
Sarb raises rates 25 basis points as inflation rises
MPC votes by four to one for hike, as inflation nears top of target range
Costa Rica orders second consecutive rate hike
Inflation remains within target band but risks “lean to the upside”, board says
IMF pares back forecasts as world faces ‘multiple challenges’
Omicron variant, supply disruptions and inflation threaten to hold back recovery, says Gita Gopinath
RBA develops new method of modelling financial sector
Approach takes Martin model “beyond the existing macroeconometric frontier”, say researchers
Fed keeps investors guessing on speed and endpoint of tightening
Investors generally agree the Fed will tighten policy, but how much and when are unclear