Forecasting
Cecilia Skingsley on monetary policy tech and a unified ledger
Head of the BIS Innovation Hub speaks about tokenisation, CBDCs and the ‘black box problem’ in AI
Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario
ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says
Bank of Korea considering forward guidance reform
Governor Rhee Chang-yong sees merit in revealing more information to public
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review of forecasting should be the start of a more profound discussion at the Bank of England
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more
Bank of England: time for fourth-generation forecasting tools?
Economists suggest ways to improve BoE’s framework ahead of Bernanke’s report
Fixing forecasting at the Bank of England
Ahead of the launch of the Bernanke review, NIESR’s Stephen Millard makes the case for three key changes to the BoE’s forecasting
ECB to explore nature-related risk in environmental plan
Climate change and biodegradation are “two sides of the same coin”
Pill says BoE has focused too hard on inflation forecast
Chief economist argues “richer and more robust analysis” is needed
Bailey hints at possible outcome of Bernanke review
Bank of England may present range of scenarios around central forecast
Bundesbank research looks at German banks’ forecasts
Economists measure lenders’ effectiveness at planning for rates cuts
Richard Byles on Jamaica’s inflation-targeting baptism of fire
The Bank of Jamaica governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about forex interventions, setting up digital disruptor banks and the next steps for Jam-dex
Memory shapes inflation expectations, study finds
People who remember high inflation also trust the central bank less, authors say
Caucasus central banks cut rates as inflation falls
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia continue gradual easing, with Armenian inflation at -0.5%
Economics Benchmarks 2023 – model banks analysis
Data reveals differences in research, forecasting and data use across central banks
Chile cuts rates for fourth consecutive meeting
Board forecasts inflation will return to 3% target in 2024
Mexico holds rates again, while Peru cuts
Peruvian board says inflation is falling faster, while Banxico predicts more gradual disinflation
Economics Benchmarks 2023 report – tentative steps on AI
The benchmarks show some small steps to increase AI use, and shed light on broader reforms to modelling, governance and more
Bank of Canada maps path to ‘fourth-generation’ models
Officials plan to create new workhorse model backed by variants focusing on key topics
Obstfeld argues central banks’ rate models are ‘conceptually flawed’
Former IMF chief economist says rates could soon return to the effective lower bound
Inflation forecast errors moderate after surge in 2022
But growth forecast errors are higher in 2023, data shows