Advanced economies
IMF projects deepest recession since Great Depression
Global growth could contract by between -3% and -6% this year, a combined loss of output of $9 trillion for 2020 and 2021
Dutch economy more volatile than European peers – DNB research
Changes to pension system, mortgage markets and budgets could reduce volatility, paper argues
Do low rates spur investment?
Many believe low interest rates spur investment, but there appears to be little hard evidence to support such claims, writes former IMF head Jacques de Larosière
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
2019: The year in review
The past year was marked by a persistent weakening of the global economy, and some radical financial innovations
Brexit opens opportunity for EU’s capital markets union – research
Future EU-UK relations limited by Brussels’ focus on preserving integrity of internal market
Global house price growth slows, but China still surging
BIS figures show broad slowdown in growth, though prices are still rising fast in some places
Cash increasingly used as store of value – BIS report
Cash “still king”, BIS authors say, but electronic payments are taking a bigger share of transactions
King calls for radical shake-up to escape ‘low-growth trap’
Central bank models fail to appreciate demand-side secular stagnation; IMF could help to drive country-specific policies to reallocate resources
Tackling ‘dead-end’ monetary policy
A shift to lower inflation targets would help central banks escape forever-loose monetary policy, writes former IMF chief Jacques de Larosière
World risks ‘global liquidity crunch’, former BIS officials warn
“Urgent action” needed to prevent crisis, say Philip Turner and André Icard
BIS studies highlight limits to unconventional policy
Policies seen as broadly effective, but reports warn of spillovers and other unintended effects if the policies are used too much and for too long
Borio and co-authors attack concept of natural interest rate
BIS paper sets out a model in which “monetary policy hysteresis” can do lasting damage to the economy
Central bankers without clothes and clout
The focus on the latest actions by central banks is disproportional to their impact on the economy. Without normalisation, central bankers may be revealed to have no clout, writes Jesper Berg
Macro-pru is no panacea
Many central banks need better macro-prudential policy frameworks and communication at a time of rising political interference
A key message from Jackson Hole: policy must globalise
Setting policy in isolation is becoming untenable and spillovers must be considered more, remarks suggest
Summers and Stansbury warn of ‘black hole’ as central bankers debate solutions
Economists say they hope for revolutionary thinking at Jackson Hole conference – “but we are not holding our breath”
Central banks face loss of independence – Central Banking survey
A new survey of Central Banking’s Editorial Advisory Board points to central banks facing existential challenges with little change in their frameworks or toolkits
Overcoming deflation: Japan’s experience and challenges ahead
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda explains how Japan’s long battle against deflation may offer insights for the future conduct of monetary policy at other central banks
Fischer and Hildebrand call for emergency policy tools
Former central bank chiefs say existing monetary tools are “almost exhausted”
The great wave: global liquidity in a turbulent world
Global imbalances are growing, and it is unclear whether the world’s institutions have enough firepower to respond to a crisis, writes Daniel Hinge
Surge in cross-border credit led by non-banks
Cross-border claims rise at fastest rate since the global crisis, BIS figures show
Bank of Spain launches data lab for research
Economists now have access to micro-data on the country’s non-financial firms
Next IMF chief could be non-European
Carney and Carstens among possible candidates as institution seeks successor to Lagarde