Advanced economies
IMF research flags technology’s role in falling labour share of income
Automating routine tasks is cheaper for companies, which reduces jobs for middle-skilled workers and contributes to higher inequality in advanced economies, paper finds
BIS rewrites statutes to boost board diversity
Changes reduce the influence of the BIS’s European directors and could pave way for better representation of emerging markets
BIS urges policymakers to exploit ‘window of opportunity’
Financial cycles are getting close to turning in many economies and central banks and governments must make sure they are prepared, the BIS warns in its 2017 annual report
BoE’s Haldane examines changing nature of work
Rise of “gig economy” and self-employment may have weakened wage-setting power among workers, the BoE chief economist says; he indicates a willingness to vote for a hike later this year
BIS comes to the defence of globalisation
Increasing trade and financial integration have had a “profoundly positive” impact on people’s lives, but do bring drawbacks too; the correct response is not a wholesale rollback, says Jaime Caruana
Central banks build expertise in move to riskier reserve tranches
Growing popularity of reserves tranching is stretching central banks’ capabilities, a new report finds, but they are turning to asset managers and other central banks for help
Balance sheet weakness and falling investment to blame for productivity slowdown – paper
IMF paper rejects structural hypothesis for slowdown in productivity growth following crisis; firms with balance sheet issues and those hit harder by credit tightening cut back on investment
Financial integration enables EMs to improve trade integration – paper
BoE paper sheds light on relationship between foreign direct investment and international trade, highlighting the “substantial” economic effects for emerging markets
Eurozone instability tops reserve manager fears – survey
Threat of instability or weakness in the eurozone and fear of major asset price correction are greatest concerns for reserve managers in 2017, Central Banking survey shows
Build-up of public debt causes longer recessions for EMs – paper
“Less supportive” fiscal policy makes emerging markets more prone to problems associated with accumulation of public debt; authors highlight the importance of fiscal buffers
Positive shock could still trip up advanced economies – Blanchard
Former IMF chief economist warns high debt levels could interact with positive shocks to cause problems; backs Rogoff’s plan for a cashless society
G20 should create central bank blockchain group – think tank
Policy brief stresses the need for the G20 to be a leading figure in the blockchain debate; new consortium to discuss implications for monetary and fiscal policy
Terms-of-trade shocks affect house price fluctuations – paper
Bank of Canada research shows terms of trade shocks explain large percentage of variance in house price growth; most of the variation associated with changes in real import prices, authors say
Paper examines “puzzles” in monetary policy transmission
HKIMR paper highlights differences in monetary policy transmission between advanced and emerging markets; “puzzles” are more severe for emerging markets
First BIS survey data on central clearing shows gaps remain
OTC derivatives surveys capture central clearing for first time; data reveals marked differences between classes of derivatives and advanced vs emerging economies
Demographics could explain entire drop in real rate – Fed paper
Authors find ageing population can explain most – or even all – of the estimated decline in the long-run real interest rate, implying low rates are here to stay
Inflation expectations more sensitive near the zero lower bound – IMF study
IMF study examines whether monetary policy can boost inflation in constrained environment; countries near zero lower bound could see inflation respond more to shocks
Falling natural rates impacted by common global factors – Fed paper
Research by Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach and John Williams finds no sign of natural rate decline reversing; advanced economies jointly affected by global factors
Property prices closing in on pre-crisis levels – BIS statistics
Statistics for the first quarter show advanced economy prices approaching levels last seen before the financial crisis, but emerging markets see a dip; research links house prices to credit conditions