Recession
More trouble likely after ‘bumps’ in past quarter, says BIS’s Borio
Corporate debt markets are looking overstretched and could trigger problems; term spread may not be best indicator of recession, special feature finds
Yield curve inversions may become more frequent, researchers say
Richmond Fed study examines relationship between term premium and yield curve inversion
Uncertainty over monetary policy is ‘recessionary’, researchers say
Forward guidance reduces uncertainty and supports the economy, paper finds
Book notes: The other half of macroeconomics, by Richard Koo
Richard Koo questions whether central bank policy can work during a balance sheet recession, writes Graham Bannock
James Bullard on 2% rates, tariffs and Fed leadership
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis speaks about the impact of US trade policies, the disruption to the banking industry from Silicon Valley, shrinking the Fed balance sheet and the potential for agent-based modelling
Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research
Inversions may be a “harbinger of recession” but seeing them coming is difficult, says economist
Brainard says yield curve inversion may not presage recession
Flatter yield curve “may temper somewhat” fears of a coming recession, says governor
The IFF China Report 2018: Chinese financial system reform
China is focusing greater effort in tackling the build-up of risks in its banking and financial system, while also seeking to ensure credit is more effectively distributed in the real economy. At the same time it is has embraced fintech but policymakers…
Fintech in the ‘new era’ – Sustainable and sound development
Li Dongrong, president of the National Internet Finance Association of China and former deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, discusses the growing importance of fintech and how innovation must be married to self-discipline for China to make a…
Quarles: yield curve flattening not “likely” a signal of recession
Flattening of yield curve is due to “expected lags” in the adjustment of longer-term rates once shorter-term rates start to rise, says Fed vice-chair
The IFF China Report 2018: China’s opening-up and reform policy
The experiences of China’s opening-up and reform during the past 40 years, which includes a transition from an agricultural economy to one seeking to offer high-end manufacturing and services, offer valuable lessons to other nations seeking to pursue…
Lagarde proposes new European fiscal fund
The mechanism would reduce reliance on monetary policy to respond to future crises
Canada effecting a cautious normalisation – deputy governor
Uncertainties related to trade, high debt levels and slower growth may delay new rate hikes
US real GDP growth accelerating in 2018 – Atlanta Fed
The real-time index GDPNow forecasts an annualised expansion of 4% in the first quarter
A dangerous unknown: interest rate risk in the financial system
Urgent action is needed to tackle the little-understood build-up of interest rate risk in the global financial system; macro-pru tools still inadequate to tackle the issue
Transparency: Central Bank of Ireland
The Irish central bank has made great progress in communicating in a candid and open manner with the people it serves
Nigerian central bank acts without MPC after quorum failure
Emefiele holds monetary policy steady, and hails continued fall in inflation
Book notes: Money in the Great Recession, by Tim Congdon
A stimulating collection of papers on the monetarist theory that had central bankers in late 2008 focused on boosting the quantity of broad money “the Great Recession would not have happened”
Most UK banks withstand ‘disorderly Brexit’ stress tests – BoE
Majority of banks unfazed by tests “more severe than the financial crisis”, but a few struggle with lingering issues
European recovery may be stronger than previously thought
If the great recession and sovereign debt crisis are considered a single shock, “recovery is in line with – or better than – historical patterns”
Constâncio discusses possible changes to new ECB model
Modelling of aggregate consumption and expectations must improve - ECB vice-president
San Francisco Fed research explores evolution of job-matching efficiency
As people out of the labour force are included, the volatility of the job-to-job transition rate falls, economists find
Ecuador’s central bank forecasts sustained recovery
Nation experienced two years of recession on falling oil prices, but stable commodity prices, fiscal austerity and stronger trade links with Europe expected to support growth
Spanish paper looks at business cycle’s effects on industry
Industries are not moving uniformly to cohesion with the business cycle, says paper