Recession
The challenges facing Christine Lagarde
The new ECB president will need to focus on a successful review of the ECB’s monetary and communications policy, while encouraging fiscal stimulus and structural reform
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
Chances of US recession ‘notably increased’, FOMC members say
Fed rate-setters worried by trade and political uncertainty and weaker manufacturing, minutes show
Book notes: Narrative economics, by Robert Shiller
The book is good fun to read, but some elements are a little disappointing
Law could help central banks fight the next recession
Brookings panel discusses using countercyclical regulations to boost spending at the ZLB
Prices more responsive in longer buyer-seller relationships – NY Fed paper
Pass-through of exchange rate shocks could decrease during recession, research finds
The Fed’s trade policy dilemma
FOMC should loosen, but members must speak out more forcefully against tariffs, writes Barry Eichengreen
Mark Carney on joined-up policy-making, forward guidance and Brexit
BoE governor rules out negative rates and change to inflation targets, offers update on too-big-to-fail and use of CCyBs, highlights challenges of an asymmetric monetary system, hits out at cumbersome payments and warns Facebook’s libra cannot ‘learn as…
Central banking’s 30-year cycle
Central banking has hit another crossroads, writes Central Banking founder Robert Pringle
ECB paper models eurozone’s vulnerabilities
Model can be used to predict build-up of major macroeconomic imbalances, researchers say
Raising CCyBs could have ‘greatly mitigated’ 2008 crisis – St Louis Fed paper
Policy-makers could have avoided a fall in aggregate consumption of 21%, researcher finds
British lawmakers ask BoE for latest Brexit analysis
Publication of previous analysis led to angry criticism by UK politicians
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Romania’s Mugur Isarescu on independence in a ‘post-truth’ world
National Bank of Romania veteran governor speaks to Christopher Jeffery about the country’s shift to a market economy, challenges in the eurozone and independence in a ‘post-truth’ world
Limited access to finance increased business exits in Great Recession – St Louis Fed
Illiquidity may have played a greater role than insolvency in business exits, researchers find
Australia poised for rate cut as economy continues to weaken
Low inflation and a declining property market make case for reversal of earlier stance
Trade protection leads to recessions in the long run – Bank of Canada researcher
Some policies can provide temporary booms in the short run, Yuko Imura finds
Time for resilience
Events that impact markets have made it crucial to build resilient portfolios that are aware of downside risks. BlackRock explores the importance of protection in downturn scenarios for reserve managers.
The IFF China Report 2019
Insight and perspectives from the world's leaders, premier policy-makers and financiers
The IFF China Report 2019: Redesigning the international trading and monetary system
Reform of the financial system that brought about the 2007–08 financial crisis has not gone far enough and advanced and emerging market economies must find a more co-operative way forward to ensure globalisation can continue.
Major EU banks would withstand economic storm – ECB research
ECB test says in profound crisis below 10% of banks would struggle to meet capital requirements
Fed’s 2019 stress tests to assume largest unemployment shock to date
Central bank also announces moves to enhance transparency in its stress-testing programme
Fed taking cautious stance on rate path
Incoming Fed officials signal there may be a rate-hike pause
Employers alter skill demands in line with unemployment, researchers find
Requirements for a bachelor’s degree increased during higher unemployment, authors find