Recession
A return of the inflation monster?
There are fears that a shift in intellectual approach towards running economies ‘hot’ could herald a return of the money-eating inflation era
Tunisian governor warns IMF aid is needed to stop ‘explosion’
Abassi tells lawmakers to accept tough reforms or face “Venezuelan scenario”
US imposes sanctions on Myanmar central bank governor
Treasury targets new slate of senior officials in military regime
Armenia central bank raises policy rate 50bp
Inflation forces rate hike, matching moves by other former Soviet republics
Georgia central bank raises policy rate despite recession
Authorities hike rates, citing rising inflation, amid high unemployment and political turmoil
Governor of the year: Alejandro Díaz de León
Díaz de León has upheld the authority, integrity and independence of the Bank of Mexico against significant external and internal pressures
The untapped potential of transaction data
Covid-19 has highlighted the need for central banks to have more timely information, questioning whether high-frequency indicators are being used to their full potential.
Paper finds little evidence of long-term scarring
Richmond Fed research finds short-term demand shocks rarely create hysteresis
Macro-prudential policies cut liquidity trap risk – ECB paper
Fall in systematic risk boosts natural interest rate and reduces intensity of liquidity traps, paper finds
Whither the age of ‘magic money’?
EME central banks are more exposed to changes in geopolitics, climate, demography, technology and inflation at a time when monetary theory is running well behind central bank practice
Lagarde signals Covid-19 stimulus will remain active for longer
Asset purchases and bank lending programmes will be key ECB tools; rate cut not mentioned
Book notes: Austerity, by Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi
When it works and when it doesn’t; every chapter is thorough, informative and persuasive
Bank of Italy paper compares US recession-forecasting methods
Measure of uncertainty out-performs even yield curve in short term, researchers say
Banking sector resilience ‘likely to be tested’ – IMF’s Adrian
Fund’s stability report says vulnerabilities are high and rising, creating difficult policy choices
Estimating the cost of a pandemic grant for the world’s poorest economies
The cost of support measures for vulnerable economies is manageable, says Steve Kamin, but political leadership may be lacking
Uncertainty hampering Fed’s and Congress’s stimulus
Research says uncertain outlook created by pandemic has been a key contributor to size of recession
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
US unemployment falls to 10.2%
Miscalculation errors continue to understate headline figures, Peterson Institute research finds
US and German economies suffer largest quarterly contraction in decades
Official figures say second quarter saw biggest US GDP decline since the Great Depression
Fed extends swap lines and warns of slowing US economy
More fiscal and monetary stimulus will be needed as cases surge in US, chair Powell said
Canada holds rates as governor warns of “long climb out”
Governor says interest rates will stay “unusually low” as central bank forecasts GDP fall of 7.8%
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high
Banks will be tested in next phase of pandemic – FSB chair
Reforms are needed to improve resolution planning and non-bank resilience, Randal Quarles says
Covid-19 is chance to lower carbon dioxide trajectory – SF Fed research
CO2 emissions likely to fall dramatically in 2020; targeted fiscal spending and telecommuting trends could cut trajectory, researchers say