Economics
Epidemics cause delayed political unrest – IMF paper
Infectious disease outbreaks lead to upheaval after health crisis has passed, researchers say
Draghi accepts task of leading next Italian government
Former ECB president must first secure enough parliamentary support to become prime minister
Monetary unions might benefit from taxing external debt – DNB paper
Policy would reduce adverse effects of shocks to risk premia on sovereign debt, researchers find
More capital could increase lending during pandemic – paper
Philadelphia Fed research finds capital injections and lower requirements would both increase lending
IMF’s Georgieva highlights pandemic impact in Latin America
GDP contraction is forecast to be 8% of GDP in 2020, double the level for the global economy
Economics Benchmarks 2020 report – executive summary
Shedding light on economics governance, salaries, forecasting, research, publications and more
Higher economic uncertainty is harbinger of civil conflict – Bank of Spain research
Spain suffered rising levels of economic uncertainty leading up to 1936–39 civil war
The changing data landscape: Part 1
Central Banking speaks to Eyal Rozen, Ramūnas Baravykas and Wanpracha Chaovalitwongse about whether there is a need to change underlying infrastructure to bolster data-driven policy-making
US may face ‘jobless recovery’ despite huge stimulus
Economists warn fiscal stimulus has been poorly targeted; Ben Bernanke defends Fed policy
Tourism acts as Covid-19 amplifier in the eurozone
Shock is increasing fragmentation risks in the region due to its uneven effect across countries
2020: The year in review
The past 12 months have been marked by crisis-fighting and losses, but also innovation
Economics Benchmarks 2020 – presentation
Central Banking’s economics subject matter specialist Daniel Hinge speaks with Christopher Jeffery about how central bank economists fared in a year where the Covid-19 pandemic upended the usual business of forecasting, analysis and research
Size matters for central bank research publishing
Staff numbers have strongest association with central banks’ research output
Administrative data is most popular alternative data source
Central banks make use of a wide range of non-traditional data sources
Central banks use alt data mainly for research
Almost all respondents make use of alternative data in at least one application
Economists earn more than number-crunchers at central banks
On average, statisticians take home 88% of what economists earn
Whither the age of ‘magic money’?
EME central banks are more exposed to changes in geopolitics, climate, demography, technology and inflation at a time when monetary theory is running well behind central bank practice
Few central banks forecast policy rates
Economics Benchmarks 2020 highlights wide variation in variables forecast by central banks
Central banks rotate economics staff frequently
Economists typically spend only small portion of time on own research; opportunities for secondment abound
Central banks play key role in sourcing and sharing data
Institutions gather data from many sources and most share it with external researchers
Climate change on the agenda for most economics departments
Central banks explore a wide range of topics, with some differences between advanced economies and EMEs
Few central banks collaborate with private-sector researchers
Collaborations are common with academia, especially in advanced economies
Christopher Waller narrowly passes Senate vote
St Louis Fed economist approved for Fed governor role, despite opposition from Democrats
Agent-based models remain rare among economics departments
Economics Benchmarks 2020 highlights the varied applications of different model types at central banks