Economics
New York Fed paper launches DSGE defence
Staff report says the standard DSGE model produced ‘surprisingly accurate’ forecasts during the financial crisis and subsequent recovery
ECB paper seeks to boost predictive power of macroeconomic models
Research analyses and seeks to supplement the predictive power of the three main families of macroeconomic models – DFM, DSGE and VAR – used by central banks
IMF paper studies SME financing as source of Japanese recovery
Research says restructuring small and medium-sized enterprises and deepening capital markets in Japan would better boost recovery than costly government support
Impending drop in economic growth, warns South African research
South African Reserve Bank working paper uses new model to analyse financial conditions; finds conditions have declined and threaten GDP growth
BoJ’s Shirakawa calls for 'drastic deregulation' to promote growth
Masaaki Shirakawa sets out possibilities for encouraging increased investment to promote growth and inflation expectations; firms reluctant to borrow despite monetary easing
National Bank of Belgium paper studies effect of shocks on US trade balance
Working paper analyses link between shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment and the US trade balance; argues this constitutes a significant element in forecasting US trade fluctuations
IMF paper builds US, euro area financial conditions indexes
Fund paper creates financial conditions indexes to forecast economic activity in the US and euro area
Hungary revamps inflation report
National Bank of Hungary says enhancements will improve efficiency of monetary policy communications
Czech National Bank - Inflation Report (Q1 2011)
Czech National Bank Inflation Report for January forecasts growth to slow in 2011 due to fiscal retrenchment
Screening distant borrowers presents challenges: Netherlands Bank paper
Netherlands Bank study examines effectiveness of lending to distant borrowers during crises
Thailand’s Trairatvorakul on policy direction in 2011
Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul calls for government and private sector to assist in macroeconomic stability in 2011
SF Fed plays down role of structural unemployment
San Francisco Federal Reserve note supports view that monetary policy can address high US unemployment
Abandon theory, Sheng urges central bankers
Andrew Sheng says current generation of central bankers became so enamoured with models they missed bigger picture; says there will be a great need for discretion, not rules, in future
ADB launches landmark renminbi bond in Hong Kong
Asian Development Bank launches ground-breaking international renminbi bond in Hong Kong; Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s Peter Pang hails likely effects on renminbi trade, settlement
Irish bonds sixth riskiest: report
Credit default swap spreads on Irish bonds spike more than any other in third quarter; Portugal also among ten riskiest sovereign issuers
Rajan, Krugman renew spat
Ex-IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman revive clash over central banks' role in the crisis
Bank of Canada on inflation expectations
Bank of Canada Review features articles on targeting inflation expectations, rate pledges and using monetary policy to tackle imbalances
NY Fed reports dip in household debt
New York Federal Reserve says households now owe more than 6% less than in 2008
St Louis Fed: Financial innovation important for growth
St Louis Federal Reserve study says improving best financial practices can boost economic performance
Crisis makes Tokyo more insular
In the first of a six-part series on the Japanese economy, Robert Pringle reports from Tokyo on how the crisis has impacted the nation’s global outlook
Estonia upgraded on euro accession; Ireland knocked down on banks’ weakness
Fitch lifts Estonian credit rating two notches, citing benefits of eurozone membership and strong fiscal performance; Moody’s downgrades Ireland on poor growth projections, worries over bad bank
East Asian, Pacific governors set for 15th annual meeting
Executives’ Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks gears up for 15th outing in Sydney; regional currency and financial stability issues to dominate agenda
The efficient markets hypothesis: dead and buried?
The efficient markets hypothesis has taken a bruising as a result of the crisis but it may have life in it yet, says Claire Jones
South Africa’s Gordhan stands up for inflation targeting, flexible rand policies
South African finance minister defends central bank’s key frameworks, lauding benefits to credibility and stability