Macroeconomics
NBER paper proposes ‘resurrecting’ non-linear Phillips curve
Original version of the curve is “strongly non-linear” and helps explain current inflation, authors say
What economists learned from Covid-19
A rush of work on ‘epi-macro’ yielded breakthroughs and then faded. Will there be lasting benefits?
BoE’s Broadbent denies money supply is driving inflation
Deputy governor says M4 growth neither driven by QE or particularly linked to inflation
Structural reforms could ‘unleash’ Indian growth – IMF paper
Study highlights shift in sources of productivity growth in India
Kganyago calls for lower inflation target and tighter policy
Sarb governor urges reform of South Africa’s troubled transport and electricity sectors
Global economy will be ‘anaemic’ – IMF
Inflation falling, but central banks will only reach targets over 2024 and 2025
Youth disconnect could create ‘less-skilled workforce’ – Dallas Fed
Declining labour force participation is detaching younger people from work, authors find
Kansas City Fed warns slow wage growth could spur debt problems
Subprime auto debt back above pre-pandemic levels and consumer debt at highest level ever
IMF research emphasises link between inflation and fiscal policy
Authors call for spending cuts and large, targeted wealth transfers to the poor
Bank of Israel warns political turmoil could hit GDP
Central bank slows cycle with 25bp hike, raising key rate to 4.5%
Long-term unemployment can affect inflation – BoE paper
Non-linear Phillips curve helps explain finding that breaks with previous literature
Edmund Phelps and the search for a ‘new economy’
The Nobel Prize winner helped lay the foundations of modern macroeconomics. Now he is concerned something is deeply wrong with how policy-makers think about the economy
Sarb deputy warns on growth prospects
Cassim says economy is “remarkable for the wrong reasons”
Blanchard and Summers say higher inflation likely to persist
Veteran economists say structural factors are likely to push up neutral rate and inflation
China sets modest growth target ahead of leadership reshuffle
Outgoing premier Li calls for accommodative policy and warns of property sector risks
BoE’s Mann challenges idea of ‘long and variable lags’
MPC member says changing transmission of policy in UK may demand more tightening
It is time to rethink the balance of monetary and fiscal policy
Jagjit Chadha says the current moment calls for more subtle policy engineering than in past bouts of high inflation
Bank of Canada paper tests ‘inflation tax’ in lab experiment
Experimental design could be used to test other aspects of monetary policy, researchers say
Spain’s De Cos calls for greater ambition in EU fiscal reforms
Redesign of fiscal rules must be supported by wider reform of financial governance, governor says
Dallas Fed research casts doubt on ‘soft landing’
US Fed chair Jerome Powell sees US worker shortages as “more structural than cyclical”
China needs reforms to maintain robust growth, IMF warns
Fund urges Chinese policy-makers to tackle productivity slowdown and financial risks
Pandemic fiscal support had rapid inflationary impact – NBER paper
Inflationary impact of support to consumers was “quick to ensue, but moderate”, authors find
IMF says global economy may be at ‘turning point’
China and India expected to drive half of global growth this year, but other economies are lagging
‘Neglect’ of money growth may have harmed forecasts – paper
Study finds forecasters make larger errors when money growth is highest