Macroeconomics
Long-term data can shed light on current inflation – NBER paper
Authors suggest first half of 20th century has clearer parallel to current inflation than 1970s
Central banks should ‘overestimate’ inflation persistence, says economist
Academic argues central banks should act as if exogenous shocks are likely to be persistent
RBI’s Patra envisages India as ‘economic superpower’
India has chance to achieve “escape velocity” from emerging market status, deputy says
Firms use supply chains to predict inflation – IMF paper
Authors find expectation formation diverges from rational expectations hypothesis
Little risk of stagflation in Netherlands, says DNB
Wages are no longer inflation-linked and profits are higher, the Dutch central bank confirms.
US inflation: it’s mainly global
Steve Kamin analyses the pre-existing conditions that impacted inflation in the US and elsewhere
Mismeasurement may cause ‘missing-investment puzzle’ – BoE’s Bailey
Rise in intangibles could explain apparent fall in investment despite stable returns, governor says
Tanzania’s current account deficit more than doubles YoY
Deficit reached $3.7 billion in May, as country turns to IMF for support
US risks slipping back into secular stagnation, says Rajan
Fed has “good chance” of defeating inflation but US economy has deeper problems, economist says
Bank of Canada deputy stresses heterogeneity’s role in monetary policy
Debt may complicate tightening cycle, as Canadian consumer inflation expectations rise
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots
Fed’s Evans and Bullard downplay recession risks
Both presidents looking to increase the policy rate to around 3.5% by the end of the year
IMF paper proposes ‘policy space index’
Authors try to quantify countries’ room to respond to a “black swan” event
US inflation expectations inch higher
New York Fed survey finds rise in expectations at one-year horizon, but not at longer term
Holding the line: the right response to war and Covid
Jagjit Chadha offers advice to policy-makers struggling to navigate between economic shocks
Atlanta Fed revises growth estimate downward
This quarter has the possibility of officially beginning a US recession
Fed’s favoured inflation gauge falls
PCE inflation reading for April 2022 was down from March
IMF calls for action on fragmenting global economy
Senior officials say world is facing “confluence of calamities” and leaders have been complacent
BIS report highlights macro risks of inequality
Persistent inequality could weaken policy and create negative feedback mechanism, research finds
BIS economists see ‘limited’ evidence of wage-price spiral
But institutional shifts and changing expectations could set stage for greater price increases
Lagarde sees risks in ‘new global map of economic relations’
ECB president says fragmentation through “friend-shoring” and regionalisation is rising
Climate change, invasion, recession: policy-makers flag mounting risks
Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell discuss “ripple effects” of war in Ukraine, while the Barbadian prime minister highlights need for reform at global institutions
Nabiullina admits sanctions taking toll on Russian economy
Central bank preparing legal action in bid to unfreeze $300 billion of foreign exchange reserves
Climate transition set to boost inflation, finds Swedish research
Sveriges Riksbank analyses main inflationary forces stemming from climate policies