Forward guidance
Central bankers have lost sight of inflation
Inflation resurgence comes after central bankers were distracted from their primary task by climate and crypto, combined with an overreliance on new Keynesian approaches
Bernanke says Fed acted too slowly on inflation
Former Fed chair argues forward guidance hampered Fed’s response to rising prices
Christopher Waller denies Fed is ‘behind the curve’
Governor argues Fed not given due credit for forward guidance and low unemployment
Is a bond market crisis imminent?
Central banks need careful action and a good dose of luck if they are to avoid financial instability
Lifetime achievement: Stanley Fischer
Fischer has had a profound impact on monetary economics and central banking during his prolific career
BoE’s Broadbent highlights perils of forward guidance
Deputy governor warns conditional guidance is often viewed as a promise to act in a certain way
Riksbank minutes confirm board division on normalisation
Three out of six board members voted to accelerate end of net asset purchases
Diego Labat on policy normalisation, capital flows and tech challenges
The Central Bank of Uruguay governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery and Ben Margulies about governance, financialisation, flexible rates versus capital controls, payment upgrades and CBDCs
ECB maintains stance but Lagarde hints at hawkish policy turn
Lagarde's press conference remarks seem to differ from policy statement, analysts say
Wunsch sceptical on forward guidance
Belgian governor says tool may be effective in a stable environment of below-target inflation
Pierre Wunsch on inflation, forward guidance and policy tightening
The National Bank of Belgium governor speaks about over-reliance on central bank models and forward guidance, the impact of energy costs and inflation expectations, and the need to unwind unconventional monetary policies
Uruguayan central bank speeds up monetary tightening
Central bank makes fourth consecutive hike and says it expects further rises at next two meetings
The matter of minutes: Why open up private deliberations?
Many central banks publish records of MPC meetings, but far fewer publish vote tallies. Where should public scrutiny stop?
‘Say what?’ Trust in central bank communications
Central banks are changing how they communicate with different audiences, but judging the success of these communication efforts is difficult
ECB’s Lane: one-off wage increases do not equal sustained inflation
Inflation is forecast to have reached 3.4% year on year in September, well above the ECB’s 2% goal
Summers fears for Fed’s ability to remove ‘punchbowl’
Central banks may not be able to counter inflation threat amid possible return to 1960s economics, says former US Treasury secretary
Larry Summers on stagflation risks, lessons from Delphi and never-ending ‘punch’
The former US Treasury secretary speaks about fiscal ‘overexpansion’, Fed/Treasury debt discord, the pitfalls of ‘unknown unknowns’ and central bankers ‘unable’ to remove the ‘punchbowl’
Brainard cites Delta in dovish speech
Fed governor warns “employment is still a bit short of the mark” for taper
Too great expectations from the ECB’s strategy review
The review process represents operational best practice, but will fail to unify the Governing Council
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”
Is the ECB’s strategy review enough?
The reformed framework may allow greater stimulus to tackle weak inflation expectations, but the Governing Council is already divided on what to do next
New forward guidance is “elemental” for ECB strategy, Lane says
Chief economist implicitly disagrees with Belgian governor’s criticism of new wording
An assessment of the ECB’s strategy review
A number of aspects of the new framework raise challenges for implementation and credibility, while the inclusion of climate change may politicise the institution, writes euro architect Otmar Issing
Podcast: Why forward guidance needs guidance
Richard Barwell, head of macro research at BNP Paribas Asset Management, discusses the limitations of forward guidance and what central banks must do to improve their communications