Economics
Ignoring fire sales weakens stress tests – Bank of Austria paper
Paper presents new method for calculating effects of deleveraging by distressed banks
BoE’s Vlieghe: central bankers must speak up about economic fragility
Outgoing MPC member says impact of debt and inequality is “stark”, but goes beyond central banking
Macro-pru can help avoid ‘reversal interest rate’ – Bundesbank paper
Use of capital ratios can aid eurozone monetary policy, researchers say
Paper analyses eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations
Short-term views, trust and Covid-19 shaped medium-term expectations – Bank of Finland paper
BdF paper analyses inflation tolerance ranges
Ranges “should not be zones of inaction” and may have unfavourable trade-offs, researchers say
South African Reserve Bank: the first 100 years
Central bankers and academics reflect on a tumultuous first century for Africa’s oldest central bank
Vast majority of central banks provide communications training
Social media, writing skills and public speaking emerged as key areas
Academics miss out on central bank background briefings
After journalists, private sector analysts are offered briefings most often
ECB paper investigates macro-pru’s impact on inequality
More research is needed on how borrower-based measures affect income inequality, researchers say
Communications often involved at early stages of central bank policy
Most central banks say comms teams are involved in early planning stage of policy decisions
Rising spillover risks from macro-prudential policies
Tools used to restrict credit in specific sectors can increase the riskiness of credit in other areas, creating challenges in the use of household-specific and corporate credit-calming measures, write Lucyna Górnicka and Apoorv Bhargava
MAS’s Vincent Loy and Celine Sia on transforming data management
The assistant managing directors explain how uniting business and technology functions is opening up new possibilities for data collection, governance and analytics
Bank of Italy paper uses agent-based model of housing market
Limits on borrowing are effective but not currently needed for Italian housing sector
Shadow banking changes macro-prudential trade-offs – BdF paper
Presence of non-banks increases importance of dynamic capital ratios, researcher argues
Charles Goodhart on inflation targets, financial stability and the role of money
The LSE professor says inflation targets should have been 0%, the Fed’s move to AIT is a mistake, independence is under threat from inflation, big balance sheets support liquidity, AI can help supervisors and climate stress tests are unconvincing
Central banks will need new tools if low rates persist – Rogoff
Governments must clamp down on crypto assets while central banks develop CBDCs, economist says
Germany facing ‘strong upswing’ – Bundesbank
Central bank revises 2021 GDP growth forecast from 3% to 3.7%
Financial sector still a headache for central bank modellers
Macro-financial links are difficult to integrate into key models, with progress since the global financial crisis slow. But some central banks are making breakthroughs
A return of the inflation monster?
There are fears that a shift in intellectual approach towards running economies ‘hot’ could herald a return of the money-eating inflation era
Time series models need adapting for Covid-19 shock – ECB paper
Authors explain methods for making Phillips curves and VAR models more robust
Policymakers should consider adjusting ECB’s target – BdF paper
Lower eurozone r* points to adjustment of monetary policy strategy, researchers find
Asset managers should face minimum cash levels – ECB paper
Researchers say macro-prudential measure would improve market allocation of financial resources
Chilean central bank measures country’s carbon footprint
Study aims to create methodology to assess emissions and develop plan to cut footprint
Australia, Canada and New Zealand form network for indigenous inclusion
Ottawa will host symposium on indigenous economics later this year