Macroeconomics
Barkin concerned over pandemic ‘scarring’
Richmond Fed chief says disruptions imperil access to jobs and economic growth
Economics in central banking: ‘Patterns in invoicing currency in global trade’, Emine Boz, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, Helena Le Mezo, Arnaud Mehl and Tra Nguyen
An extensive data-gathering exercise allowed the authors to shed new light on critical aspects of policy-making in a globalised world, while clearing a path for other researchers to follow
Fed paper finds ways to boost forecast performance
Adding extra information can help make forecasts more accurate and robust, authors say
BoE paper outlines new theory of automation and inequality
Authors highlight “new theoretical mechanism” linking automation to higher wealth inequality
Paper models link between policy uncertainty and growth
Bank of Luxembourg paper looks at how investors adjust their estimates of monetary policy
Fed officials differ on outlook for US economy
Leaders agree on policy, but differ on forecasts, measures and key concerns
Paper examines US pensions’ effects on natural rate
Welfare effects of possible reforms depends on productivity growth, Bank of Italy paper finds
Book notes: Capital and ideology, by Thomas Piketty
A political pamphlet like Milton’s ‘Areopagitica’, but longer
How valuable is a PhD economist?
Heads of research from Canada, Israel and North Macedonia weigh the benefits of advanced economics education – and the challenge of retaining top staff
Powell: US economy still ‘a long way’ from meeting Fed goals
Fed chair predicts continued need for low interest rates and QE, as recovery remains “uneven and far from complete”
Green finance: new initiatives in China, Europe and Americas
Eurosystem adopts common investment principles; China pushes climate modelling; and more
Riksbank proposes larger transfer to Swedish Treasury
Central bank would provide Skr6.8 billion to the government in 2021
Paper finds little evidence of long-term scarring
Richmond Fed research finds short-term demand shocks rarely create hysteresis
Fed’s 2021 stress test includes major asset price shock
CCAR will evaluate 19 largest banks; scenario includes 55% fall in equity prices
Evidence of central bank research bias is ‘mixed’ – RBA paper
Results contrast with another recent study that found bias in research on QE
Central banks look to shockproof models in wake of Covid-19
The Covid-19 crisis caused many central bank models to break down. Economists at the St Louis Fed, Bank of Spain and ECB were quick to innovate and say they will continue testing new tools
Frequent recessions push up US unemployment rate – paper
Cleveland Fed research says two decades of growth would produce 3.6% unemployment
Reserve Bank of Australia launches A$100bn in new QE
Australian central bank surprises analysts with easing measure, despite more hopeful macroeconomic forecast
Monetary unions might benefit from taxing external debt – DNB paper
Policy would reduce adverse effects of shocks to risk premia on sovereign debt, researchers find
New macroeconomic framework needed for recovery – Ghana governor
Public debt levels have breached maximum thresholds and NPLs are likely to climb, Addison says
Higher economic uncertainty is harbinger of civil conflict – Bank of Spain research
Spain suffered rising levels of economic uncertainty leading up to 1936–39 civil war
BdF paper looks at fiscal responses to liquidity traps
Infrastructure spending is more robust to model specification changes than sales tax- paper
Macro-prudential policies cut liquidity trap risk – ECB paper
Fall in systematic risk boosts natural interest rate and reduces intensity of liquidity traps, paper finds
Paper lays groundwork for Canadian ‘Hank’ model
Author estimates “earnings process” as step towards heterogeneous agent modelling