Professional forecasts lose accuracy over time: Philly Fed
The accuracy of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters varies with the length of the forecast horizon, according to a research notes published last Friday.
The report, by Tom Stark, the assistant director of the Philly Fed's Real-Time Data Research Centre, posits that macroeconomic data revisions can have a significant impact on the accuracy of the survey. However, Stark finds that such revisions tend not to affect the accuracy of the survey's projections
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