Asia-Pacific
Managers predict moderate AI impact on reserves
But many reserve managers see high future potential for AI
New Zealand tightens policy as inflation remains above target
RBNZ says currently ‘lacklustre’ growth likely to accelerate after carrying out expected hike
Bessent believes BoJ will act in support of yen
‘I have information that the market doesn’t have,’ US Treasury secretary says
Geopolitics is fastest-rising research topic for economists
Research economists are most widely judged on their output of papers
Economists devote up to half of working hours to research
Higher-paid research economists tend to spend more time on own research
Central banks predict growth more accurately than inflation
AI models may offer more precise forecasts
Most key projection models capture policy rates
But respondents rarely disclose policy rate forecasts alongside scenarios
Third of key models now employ endogenous financial sector
Multiple channels of monetary transmission rooted in majority models
Central banks complement traditional models with AI
Time series and semi-structural models remain economists’ choices for forecasting
Working group minutes: macro-pru calibration challenges
Many central banks are struggling to get enough data, particularly on borrowers
Working paper production linked to number of PhD economists
Central banks averaged output of roughly 10 working papers last year
Third of economics departments say staffing ‘barely sufficient’
Forecasting, policy analysis and research are economists’ top duties
Economists’ average annual salary rises
Incomes have some relation with GDP per capita and central bank size
Economics staff strength increases over two-year period
Departmental size as share of central banks’ workforce widens to 7.7%, on average
Kazakhstan makes surprise 25bp rate cut
Analyst says central bank is trying to signal that disinflationary measures are working
Asia-Pacific central banks say AI risks require ‘vigilance, agility’
MAS and BoT also sign anti-fraud MoU on sidelines of meeting involving 11 monetary authorities
Closer PBoC-CBL ties reflect China’s strategic aims, says expert
Central Bank of Libya to enter China’s payment system and bond market
Cross-border co-operation stronger for non-central bank supervisors
Roughly one-fifth of central banks lack supervisory college membership
Supervisors report capital and liquidity resilience across banks
Basel II remains most adopted global standard among respondents
People: Peru’s president-elect asks governor to stay on
Plus: Irish central bank makes senior appointments
Move to inflation targeting could boost resilience – IMF paper
Countries in Middle East and central Asia should make exchange rates more flexible, authors say