Risk-adjusted model anticipates rate changes better – paper
Monetary policy forecasts perform better when adjusted to risk, authors say
A research team at the Banco de México investigates a model which could give market participants, in particular the monetary authority, better forecasts for monetary policy changes.
In the working paper, the team looks at whether models that use interest rate swaps to forecast changes in Mexican policy perform better when adjusted to risk.
Santiago García-Verdú, Manuel Ramos-Francia and Manuel Sánchez-Martínez create a model-based forecast by extracting information from the interest rate
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Monetary Policy
BoE hints at possible cuts before Fed
Rate cuts may exceed market expectations, Andrew Bailey says
Sweden cuts rates while Norway holds
Norges Bank warns slowing disinflation may mean maintaining rates for longer than it expected
BIS’s Zhang Tao on why Asian central banks favour a broader policy mix
The BIS’s Asia chief speaks with Christopher Jeffery and Jimmy Choi about supporting liquidity, financial stability and innovation in the Asia-Pacific region
Turkey official inflation surges to nearly 70%
Finance minister Şimşek says inflation will peak in May and then decline
Neutral interest rates at pre-pandemic levels, Bank of Canada finds
Nominal neutral interest rates in both countries sit between 2.25% and 3.25%
Czech National Bank cuts rates by 50 basis points
Central European country follows in Hungary’s footsteps in easing
Bank of Russia holds rates
Nabiullina hints at significant fiscal change and says “inflationary pressure” remains
Pakistan holds interest rate ahead of IMF loan review
Central bank says inflation remains high even after dropping in March
Most read
- BIS’s Zhang Tao on why Asian central banks favour a broader policy mix
- Central banks prepare for the rise of AI
- Central bank of the year: Central Bank of Brazil