Estimates by World Bank economists imply emerging economies in South-east Asia and the Pacific could slip into recession this year, as the coronavirus outbreak is “profoundly affecting” the region.

A report published on March 30 sets out both “baseline” and “lower-case” scenarios for growth and other macroeconomic indicators. On the baseline, most countries avoid negative growth in 2020, except for Thailand and Timor-Leste. But the lower scenario is more severe, with the majority of countries